UNDERSTANDING THE VALUE OF SOLAR IN THE WEST KOOTENAYS

  UPDATE FEBRUARY 2022 FINALLY SOME HONESTY  

Solar garden costs 47c/kWh, and they said it would reach parity in 7 years.  Nelson hydro

wholesale cost of power generation about 2c/kWh,  Solar is about 25 times more, PARITY???????

Below quoted from the city website 

Utility companies use Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) as a metric for investment planning. It establishes a common comparative baseline across various forms of discounted energy generation over their lifetime. An updated project analysis completed in February 2022 concluded that 248 panels were installed from November 2015 to June 2017 at an actual cost of $331,372 generating an average of 66,622 kWh annually, with a customer investment of $221,657.30. Calculating the LCOE from an investment perspective using the project and maintenance actuals to the end of 2021 results in an LCOE of $0.47/kWh.   At least 25 X  more than Nelson hydro's wholesale cost of power! And it adds to our carbon footprint, nothing is cleaner or greener than our waterpower!

Now that this truth is out, will Nelson do what Kimberley did?  The Kimberley SunMine solar project was a total loser and taxpayers were told their  $2M  would be paid back by the solar power sales. It couldn't payback even though they claim they get as much sun as Phoenix Az and BC Hydro was paying a full retail premium for this power.  The Kimberley mayor tries to put his best positive spin on selling the SunMine to mitigate the city taxpayers losses.

Nelson needs to do something similar with their community solar garden, dismantle it and sell it for salvage value and get Nelson hydro residents out of paying for this and return to making huge profits from the power that would and should be made by cleaner greener water now spilling down the river.  As the only city in western Canada with its own money machine, hydro generation we are the last place that public money should have been spent on solar, the power of greenwashing!!!













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 PART 1    of 2            Part 2 : Balfour solar grants

UPDATE I have recently become aware of the Proctor Community Hall solar system installed with public grant money, I missed any public announcements?

UpDatE 2 :  The Nelson hydro bylaw is changing to "Nelson hydro will only pay wholesale for existing or any future solar power".  The bylaw was already in place but ignored and this adds the "existing" to the previous bylaw..  Had the city not ignored that bylaw I would never be writing this or anything else regarding solar, they were dishonest, deceptive and unethical.  BC Hydro and Fortis customers aren't subsidizing any solar, why is Nelson hydro? Politics, I am an unwilling particpant.


As an Electrical Electronics Engineering Technologist supervisor retired from a provincial system of over 122 remote solar sites, I know solar.

It requires a very good understanding of how power is made here and how public money spent on solar systems relates to any benefit.  I will try to help you understand that public money is being wasted on solar power systems here in our water powered province.  

If you understand capacity factor (CF) this is key to your knowledge regarding solar here.

If a power generator like hydro for example works 24/7/365 it has a CF of 100%.

CF is a ratio between the potential maximum power of a generator versus the power output over time.

Solar power in our area has a CF of about 11%.  Its intermittent and unreliable.  That means if you depended on solar power you would need a back up source of power the remaining 89% of the time.

(that doesn't mean the sun only shines 11% of the time thats another explanation)

Further, in winter months solar CF is around 3% falling to .012% in December.  That means you would need to have another power source in December for 99.98% of the time.  Solar doesn't work.

Would you buy a solar flashlight?  I mean one without batteries that only  shines when the sun  shines.

Well think about all these solar systems as solar powered flashlights.  Thats when they make power and most of it during the time of year we don't need it.

If you don't know what the Nelson Community Solar Garden is click here.

If you understood the Solar garden concept, its an array of solar panels where one could buy a 25 year contract for the power of a solar panel.  The project was to be voluntary and fully funded by those opting in.  The city is now using the term largely funded.  The reality is its mostly funded by your and my electric bill.

 It was a feel good project, those opting in thought they were helping to save the planet and reduce carbon, it actually increases this cities carbon footprint.  

Below is a graph of the annual power made by a solar system, almost all power is made from April through September.   Solar has no value at that time, refer to the annual river flow graph below.


Above is a graph of the annual Kootenay River Water flow, Orange is excess water spilling.  Light blue is BC Hydro Kootenay Canal power generation water use, dark blue is Fortis generation,  Nelson hydro is too small to show.

Almost all annual solar power is made when water is spilling over the dams not making any power.  That makes solar power the same value as that water, $0.   
From a BCUtilities Commission item that further substantiates the value of solar as $0 since all power comes from Nelson hydro generation, " at times when there are no deliveries from FBC on Line 27 (During the freshet) both rural and city receive NH energy as stated above"   and another sentence from the BCUC document further substantiating solar almost all made in summer  has no value "FBC energy is required to operate the system during the 8-9 months of the year"   {yet the Nelson hydros consultant provided a business case, did the manager expect him to provide one that had no business case?  This was politics the city wanted this the engineers ethics failed us} Nelson hydro is buying that solar power at full retail so that money can be distributed to the churches, co-ops and others who opted in.  Thats your money.  That power should come from water making huge profits to help reduce everyone's electric bills. UPDATE MAY 2021 THE NELSON HYDRO BYLAW ALWAYS SAID THEY WON'T BUY ANY POWER UNLESS IT MAKES ECONOMIC SENSE, THEY HAVE IGNORED THAT.  THIS WILL CHANGE THE NEW WORDING IS THEY WILL ONLY PAY WHOLESALE FOR EXISTING AND ANY FUTURE EXCESS SOLAR POWER.
  Anyone contemplating solar and being told the payback comes from selling excess power to Nelson hydro, those days are over.  No more subsidy from other Nelson hydro customers who should be benefitting from the huge profits of cleaner greener water now going down the river so these feelgood solar projects seem to get something back.
One might attribute value to solar power when water is not spilling, during six winter months the solar garden made power for little more than one house.



Above Nelson hydro,, when water is available they can make full 16MW of  power and are selling power to BC Hydro and Fortis.  The entire July solar garden power sold to BC Hydro would make $80.
I estimate the Nelson community solar garden cost over $400,000, the city admits to $339,000.  
 

BC is a water power province, beginning with spring runoff our reservoirs fill, dams overflow, flooding occurs and we store millions of acre feet of water.    Duncan Lake fills  with over 1.4 million acre feet, the Libby, Kootenay and Arrow lakes fill with millions more acre feet of water.  These are our winter batteries, it all draws down during winter making power for millions of homes, the cycle repeats.


When water is no longer available Nelson hydro is reduced to their 9.1MW water license generation and buying excess power at premium prices from Fortis.  Solar is making very little power, in October its saves about $180 not buying Fortis power.


In winter Nelson hydro is buying even more expensive Fortis power.   In December it might save $20 not buying Fortis power.   Nelson hydro this year is expected to buy $7M from Fortis.

 All the local communities are all signing on to be 100% renewable, they mention solar.  Capacity factor for solar in December is about .012%.  How do all these communities plan to be 100% renewable in December?  They will have to find some other power for the 99.98% of the time solar doesn't work.



We have to do what works. A century ago almost every community had their own small hydro plant,   Nakusp put small hydro on their city water system it makes power for 50 homes, in winter, at night, when it snows or rains  The solar garden doesn't work at night, (some think it does)  or the winter. 

 

This highway sign on the way to Castlegar shows dams making power for a million homes.  The Nelson community solar garden might make power for 4 to 5 homes, barely one of those all winter.



Nelson got an award for the solar garden, held by previous mayor Kozak, the Nelson hydro manager on the left brought city council a business case for the solar garden.  He is no longer employed. Next to the manager is the solar contractor.  She had no experience with solar.  I emailed the CAO asking why they don't hire people with expertise in solar,  he replied she is a well known face.  The solar garden installation is a complete fail.  I asked for her contract, they said it wasn't being renewed, she became a manager at Nelson hydro.
They password lock the useful information for the public on line monitoring data for the Nelson Community Solar garden.  I have asked several times they unlock this, it might show how many light bulbs it could light, or charge a smartphone, how about how many days it would power a home. Unlock the data! Letter to the editor.  UPDATE possibly my request to the NEW hydro manager, a lot of the info is now unlocked although I suspect 99.9% of the public won't be able to interpret this.  10 schools bought solar panel contracts but as far as I know not one school has anyone instructing any students, nor do I believe any instructor would have the knowledge to instruct. 



BC Hydro and Fortis only pay their wholesale cost of power for anyone's solar power.  'Why is Nelson  hydro paying full retail?  Thats coming out of our electric bills.  I didn't volunteer or opt into that phony feelgood project and I don't want to pay for it.
 
Nelson hydro's own bylaw says they won't buy any power unless it makes economic sense.




Solar won't take us to 100% renewables here.

We have to do things that work!

 A century ago almost all local communities had their own hydro plants. I can't think of anything else that will get us there.  

Nakusp put small hydro on their city water system for $150,000 making power for 50 homes it will last a century and works all the time. 

Nelson had an opportunity to put hydro generation on their recent water line extension, they didn't. Our gravity water system pressure reducing valves can  make power.    The cities main water line is 100 years old and needs replacing.  The engineers report shows two hydro generation potentials.  What are we doing with this solar garden?  Cradle to toxic grave solar panels age making less power every year.  LIfe expectancy 25 years.

                                      Step 5 building code Net Zero its coming.  

Nelson hydro has to stop paying full retail for solar power or this will pick your pocket too.

Step 5 Net zero building code presumes a home will make as much power as it consumes annually.

How is this possible?  Put solar panels on the roof.   Nelson hydro will credit you full retail for your excess summer solar power and in winter when solar doesn't work you cash in these credits while Nelson hydro is buying expensive Fortis power.
If you have enough credits your annual power bill is $0  "Net Zero"

You get a free ride.  No power bill, Net Zero. Does the city know about this? There is one step code 5 building with solar panels in the area, althought its not mandatory yet.

Now that the city is going after all rural Nelson hydro customers to pay for all expensives Fortis power maybe it will be rural electric customers electric bills filling all these summer solar credits.  All existing solar power systems in the area already receive full retail credit for their excess solar power.
 As a city resident I don't want to be stuck buying expensive Fortis in winter to fill all these solar credits earned at full retail in summer.

Solar started out being a great political vote getter, now its electric vehicles  They get all the tax incentives, public money installs all the charging stations, they plug in for free power and don't pay any gas tax to maintain roads.  That will probably change before Nelson hydro stops paying full retail credit for anyone who can afford solar systems.

Who pays, those who can't afford these new homes with solar power systems and electric vehicles.  That would be the people struggling already on fixed incomes etc.
Nelson hydro has to do what BC Hydro and Fortis do, only pay wholesale for anyone's solar power its coming out of your electric bills now.  
 
         

Putting the solar garden at the dam wasn't the smartest thing to do, the mist from the dam creates its own cloud directly over the solar garden.  Its under the cloud to the right.


One of many public solar garden ads.  Coercive?  Only those who participate will benefit!  Right beside a green ad.  There is nothing green about the solar garden.  Cradle to toxic grave nothing is cleaner than our water power.  They use the word investing above!

    
 The Nelson solar garden in winter. Who installs a solar system so the front row of solar panels shade     
 the back row?  When you hire people who don't know what they are doing what do you expect?


Everyone jumping for joy in front of the Nelson community Solar Garden, the great green misinformed  many who have no interest in the economics, to them its more of a religion as long as its your pocket being picked and not theirs.  




Balfour community hall,  another greenwashing project picking our pockets to save a few dollars off the buildings electric bill.   How many more public buildings solar systems from grant money will you say is enought?  
 
They claim this was installed for $2.68/watt.  The on line public data says 12.4kW is installed, the RDCK bid info says 16.8kW what really is installed is 18.3 kW.  
I think real instal cost was much more maybe up to $4/watt.  I would like to see the proof.

Between the Golf clubhouse, Balfour community Hall and seniors centre over 67kW of solar was installed.   I would think that should cost possibly $3 to $4/watt, I lean more towards $4 or about $250,000.  When I look at the RDCK annual payments to suppliers over $25,000  all I can see for the installers Dandelion Renewables is $66,666.   Where are all the rest of the expenses shown?

Part 2  Balfour Solar grants? coming

Comments

  1. What Max Yanke, this blogger, and BC Hydro fail to communicate either for a reason they don't want you to know or because they simply don't understand themselves, is that BC has connections south into the western grid. During June-September when the days are hot across the western US, the spot markets for power make BC Hydro's marketing contractor a lot of money selling at peak in the afternoon and then shutting hydro down and buying Nuclear and other fossil fueled steam power at night. BC Hydro has the ability to use those big pools of water to improve its bottom line and micro solar power plants that yield excess beyond self consumption support this system. If water is spilling over the weirs below Nelson and not running through turbines, it is because the pools are all full or with snow pack forecasting there will be flooding if the dam managers don't spill excess into the Kootenay river system. During the freshet there may be excess power generation potential considering the contribution of micro solar power plants, but within a decade the number of EVs charging and eBus charging, any excess will be needed. The demand for electricity during business and manufacturing hours can be partially supplied by solar and reserve water into the fall in the big reservoirs, ready to meet needs when the solar period of the year sets for about 110 days.

    What is missing From Max's mission to right the energy wrongs happening is a broader look at what is going on and who is ripping off the average BC resident. Trans Mountain, Coastal Gas Link and Site "C" Dam. 3 projects getting literally billions in public funding and all 3 are net loss projects for the citizenry. It is almost like Max Yanke is being paid to distract from the real rip-offs occurring out there.

    Somehow he is saying that solar has some special high standard it must meet in order to be something a community or an individual should be allowed to choose. A community can upgrade a swimming pool or put up a piece of public art as a choice, but solar energy hardware cannot be seen in this time for what it is, a step in a pioneering direction that given some forces of necessity will become ubiquitous and yes even more affordable. And yes I am selling solar systems turnkey for less than $2.25 per rated watt now. A larger project like Balfour community hall would be even less. I could probably do that project now for $2.00 per watt.
    The other exciting reality coming very soon is EV batteries being mobile power supplies to level the intermittency of solar, and wind.
    Net Zero homes use so little energy in heating that they are not a big winter drain on the hydro electric supply.
    I would suggest that if any of you out there have discretionary cash to spend, you should think about the few things you can have that do not end up in a dump within a short time or burn up in a jet flight. Invest in home energy improvements, developing a food factory around your home and make energy on the roofs. All long lasting investments that reduce you demands for resources in the future.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. from a solar salesman, I spoke with him, he forgets money has a cost when he says solar has a payback. I pointed out money isn't free and either one uses invested money earning interest or gets a loan, when you have to pay back this loan or lose the interest income from investments solar is a total loss. Nobody would do this when they understand economics. Also solar here is dirty power, nothing is cleaner than our own water power making huge profits for everyone. Cradle to toxic grave if solar panels last 25 years as they make less power every year no one would spend anything for solar when they understand the value here in our part of the world of clean cheap green waterpower.

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